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The Process

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When neither up-to-date subnational population projections (that are sex- and age-disaggregated) nor source data needed to compile such projections are available, then either a formal data request to the National Statistics Office is needed, or the use of model-based estimates needs to be considered (by either using the available WorldPop gridded population estimates or undertaking a hybrid census modeling exercise). If modeling is needed,  UNFPA follows a set of principles and methods of demography to estimate and project the population by age and sex.

BayesPop framework: Given the data availability challenges and data quality issues in many humanitarian contexts, UNFPA preferred tool is the BayesPop framework of Bayesian population, cohort-component projection to construct COD-PS datasets from the best available population and demographic data. The BayesPop framework is used to produce the World Population Prospects (WPP), United Nations bi-annual population estimates and projections. All code libraries are publicly available for download and can be run in R which in turn is open source.  The use of these tools facilitates reproduction and transparency of UNFPAs estimates and projections, as well as, future updates as new population or demographic data become available later.  The BayesPop framework facilitates the flexible projection of population data and usage of a wide array of data on population dynamics (e.g. fertility, mortality, and migration). It also provides a probabilistic framework for combining multiple disparate types of population data, of varying quality, and communicating the uncertainty associated with resulting projections in the form of credibility intervals. 


Info
titleEND-USER GUIDANCE NOTE
To support humanitarian decision making and action, UNFPA document's individual country COD-PS datasets through an end-user guidance note. This document details the input data used to construct the COD-PS, documents any adjustments made to the underlying data during the estimation process, describes the demographic estimation and projection methods used and summarizes the COD-PS dataset by noting its strengths and limitations. The end-user guidance note also explicitly describes the reference population and reference year for which the COD-PS applies. It is designed to assist humanitarian decision-makers in understanding the strengths of limitations of the data and methods used to compile a COD-PS, as they use COD-PS data for needs assessment, humanitarian plan design, and assessments of humanitarian interventions.

Standards <NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SECTION>

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The minimum standards identified in the current evaluation checklist enable data interoperability and harmonization. 

COD-PS Required Characteristics (minimum requirements in red)

Metadata

  • Source organization must be clearly identified, and acceptable for humanitarian use
  • Population data are endorsed by IM Network
  • The dataset must be able to be shared (at least once at the onset stage of an emergency)
  • P-codes from COD-PS match COD-AB (tables can link 1:1)

Tabular Attributes

  • Field names are clear and understandable
  • Field names used consistently across all Admin layers
  • Population breakdown exists for sex and age for each administrative unit (with sex disaggregation for every age cohort)
  • All values must be integers.
  • All values must be present
  • Sum of data matches the value of higher admin level
  • Data is checked for inconsistencies
  • Data is checked for outliers
  • P-codes are the unique identifiers used in the country (ideally government sourced)
  • P-codes are present and unique for each administrative unit
  • P-code attribution is consistent across all layers
  • P-codes for higher-level administrative units are included in lower levels
  • P-codes and feature names (and therefore feature counts) should conform to established and accepted administrative boundary datasets (COD-AB) - however, it may be that the COD-PS is the more reliable authority.

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The COD-PS involves the IMWG and follows the normal COD cycle.

UNFPA Steps

  1.  UNFPA UNFPA (HQ) Technical Division coordinates with Regional Offices to identify CO 'experts' in population statistics/demographic data and to validate any publicly available dataset.
  2.  If If a dataset is publicly available, CO experts assess if such dataset meets the "best-available principle". If no datasets have been identified by TD/RO, then CO experts will identify population datasets for their country that are available at different administrative levels and ideally age and sex-disaggregated. They Datasets need to match the COD-AB and should be identified and processed at the same time. If datasets require processing to improve them (e.g. estimations, SADD, etc) the methodology should agree to by the IM network and include in the metadata. This should be done during preparedness activities as it is expected that within 48 hours of an event triggering a humanitarian emergency,are too outdated or unavailable, then UNFPA will use WorldPop gridded population estimates or the BayesPop framework tool to produce the COD-PS. All datasets shall include a comprehensive metadata file.
  3. Once the final population dataset has been validated by UNFPA's RO and CO, the RO will share the proposed COD-PS with OCHAS IM RO.

OCHA Steps

  1. OCHA IM RO will assess the proposed COD-PS.
  2. Gain endorsement by the IM Network that the dataset is the COD-PS.
  3. Gain endorsement by the HC/RC  of the COD-PS.
  4. The COD-PS dataset and metadata should be widely shared through national, regional, and global channels (HDX) to support data compatibility pertaining to the emergency.

OCHA Steps

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Emergencies and unavailable COD-PS

  1.  Reach out to UNFPA RO/CO who are 'experts' in population statistics/demographic data. UNFPA should be included as defined by Joint letter regarding cooperation between UNFPA and OCHA on CODs

IM Network

The IM Network may already include COD-PS subject matter experts but you may want to consider others who are not typically part of the group.  You may also consider creating a specific working group to focus on this particular dataset and report to the larger network after each phase of the COD cycle.  Relationships are a key part of the COD cycle and just as important and the datasets.  Questions to ask yourself when considering the IM Network is for the development of COD-PS: 

  1. Who can provide population statistics datasets? 
  2. Who is using demographic data in-country, regionally or globally? 
  3. Who can help with providing answers to specific questions about the dataset? 
  4. Who can help process the data?  Who can help maintain the dataset over time? 
  5. Who could be responsible for the data post the event?

In addition to the IMWG / IM network members, these particular partners should be consulted: 

  • Government: the ideal data source; can help develop estimates; can help clarify links between COD-PS and COD - AB
  • UNFPA: work with the government on population data
  • UNHCR: to provide refugee population data
  • IOM: to provide IDP population data
  • Others as required

Considerations

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Resources

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